Monday, February 15, 2010

Why Set unpredictability is so dangerous to human thought and Comfort Zone

What is the case, luck and unpredictability? Well, this is the reality that once you define entirely unpredictable, will not be so once more unpredictable. That is, if you need to understand fully and to show how unpredictable occurs, then, paradoxically, finds a way to predict the unpredictable, so unpredictable, it is always defeated.

Once you do, you have destroyed a certain extent the concept of free will. If everything is predictable, itgiven and for most people just when they think it sucks. This means that in reality we live in a Calvinist world, a world where everything is already determined, predictable and a world where the ability, luck, free will, not chaos, randomness and unpredictability in the strict definitions really exist? Maybe you can understand why this is inconvenient for many.

Philosophers have discussed these things for generations, and often not very far, because such aCircular reasoning. People like Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, "The Black Swan" is that consultants, historians and researchers who often use the long-term planning on the history and cycles, how to be rational in their planning, without taking into account the "black swan" event or a random event that was not anticipated that changes everything and makes all their planning is irrelevant. Have, in fact, I bet Nassim call seeking one or two things on the definitions, to sayUnpredictability.

In his book he argues that the arrogance of planners who claim to predict things in the future, much luck and things like that unusual predictions prove inaccurate. Maybe you should sit down and look at this problem and all its ramifications and see what you came with. And then ask yourself if you're unpredictable and even when you see that is to lead?


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